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May 7, 2021

Buying a new home on a small lot.

Considering a brand new home on a tiny postage-stamp-sized lot, maybe even just a patio with a very small yard in a sea of similar homes? Or maybe a similar flipped older home in a mediocre neighborhood (schools, crime, etc) because the price is right?

Really, think about these things and how they may affect you, your neighbors, and the future of that neighborhood.

It may look and smell new & shiny now, but what about the future? It's sometimes hard to do but think long-term for your happiness and the future investment value of your MOST important investment.

Posted in Market Updates
April 15, 2021

Will the Real Estate Market Crash?

This is a question I hear all the time, "When will the bubble burst"? And it's a good one, given our open wound still, from the 2006-2011 crash.

The short answer is that the "bubble", which is a press/ news term that I strongly dislike, is not going to "burst" and there is no "bubble". There are however real estate cycles and we're nearing the peak of this cycle.

So I believe that the Real Estate Market will slow from its current torrid pace and escalating prices, then prices will plateau, then come down slightly and eventually it will balance again. Usually about a 3-6 year phase of a RE cycle.

I've been in the business for 32+ years, have been through 2 major and 2 minor market cycles. The changes WILL come, always have, always will.

The following Realtor Magazine article is fairly right on target and explains several of the differences between now and then (2006). 

Google Searches Reflect Consumers’ Market Angst

April 14, 2021

 

Americans are increasingly turning to Google to find answers to their housing questions. The phrase “When is the housing market going to crash?” has surged in Google searches by 2,450% in the past month. Consumers are also searching for information about “Why is the market so hot?”—doubling in the last week—and “How much over asking price should I offer on a home in 2021?” which increased by 350% in Google searches that week.

While consumers are showing concern that the housing market may be overreaching as home prices rise and bidding wars become common, the National Association of REALTORS® has said conditions are different now than in the previous hot market. “This is not a bubble,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR, recently told Axios. “It is simply lack of supply.”

The nation has 1.03 million homes available for sale, a record low, and far from the peak of more than 4 million during the height of the last housing bubble in July 2007, according to NAR data. Total active listings were down 54% last week compared with a year ago, realtor.com® data shows.

Mortgage lending is much stricter now than during the last hot market as well. Most homeowners can afford the home they’re living in and have accumulated equity from home price increases, which have eased concerns of a foreclosure crisis brewing, such as the one that resulted from the last housing bubble. Investors are also highly prevalent in the housing market due to high demand for rentals, and that should also serve as a backstop for major price declines, economists told CNBC.

Buyer demand remains high for a limited number of homes for sale. Forty-two percent of homes are selling for more than their list price at the start of April—a 16 percentage point increase compared with the same period a year earlier, according to housing data from the real estate brokerage Redfin.

“The housing market is more competitive than we’ve ever seen it, but a couple of indicators are causing us to ask whether we’re nearing a peak in terms of how fast demand and prices can grow,” says Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist. “Sellers’ asking prices may be starting to flatten in what so far appears to follow a typical seasonal pattern.” If that continues to happen, she says the housing market will not be in a runaway home price speculation environment.

Also, with mortgage rates gradually on the rise, more potential buyers may find they’ve topped their affordability limit for now. Frank Nothaft, the chief economist at CoreLogic, told CNBC he expects to see annual home price gains cool to the 3% range, instead of the double-digit annual increases seen over the past year.

March 23, 2021

Arrrgh "Bubble". I really dislike that word

Wow, the Real Estate market has been remarkably hot for quite a while now with interest rates and inventory incredibly low, demand incredibly high and prices soaring to record levels.

 

I'm asked often now, as I was asked in 2006 & 1989, "Is this going to continue"? And the simple is....NO.

 

But, in 2021 what I believe we will see are:

 

1- Home Prices will continue to go up.

2- Interest rates will begin to rise and I wouldn't be surprised to see mortgage rates at 4% or above by years end.

3- The housing Affordability Index will go down, meaning less average income people/ families will be able to afford the average priced home in any given area.

4- Inventory and time on the market will begin to go up.

5- The word "inflation" will start to come back into the media and conversations.

 

Economically speaking, this pace cannot continue, especially in our current economy which is still fragile and not yet recovering.

 

This is NOT the same dynamics that were in place in the summer of 2006, which was the beginning of the biggest real estate market adjustment/ the collapse in my career or even lifetime, but the cycle will come.

 

To what degree, no one can be exact, but I don't believe another meltdown or even a deep dive is coming, but there will be slowing, flattening and some falling areas, for sure.

 

And a PS: I really dislike, the overused word "bubble".

Posted in Market Updates
July 31, 2017

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