Welcome to the September edition of my monthly market newsletter. This is the honest read on where Sacramento, Placer, and El Dorado Counties stand right now: what is selling, for how much, how long it takes, and what the trends mean for your next move. The short version: prices have flattened, supply is creeping up at a healthy pace, and mortgage rates are sitting in the high 6 percent range. If you have been waiting for a normal market, this is about as close as we have gotten in five years.
Market Snapshot
The numbers below are the most recent published figures for each county, drawn from local MLS and broker data. Every county is different this month, so read them as three separate stories, not one regional headline.
Sacramento County
Median: Flat YoYMedian Sale Price
$549,950
Single-family, essentially unchanged from a year ago
Months of Supply
2.7
Up from 2.5 a year ago; still leans toward sellers
Avg Days on Market
~17
Average for homes that actually sell
Sales Volume
+14.5%
June closed sales vs. a year earlier; September closed sales tracking lower, but pendings up 6%
Roughly 38 percent of Sacramento County listings took a price reduction this month. That is not a falling market. It is a market telling sellers to start at today's numbers, not last year's. Homes priced right still move in about two to three weeks.
Placer County
Median: +2.7% YoYMedian Sale Price
$693,000
Up 2.7% year over year (August data)
Months of Supply
Tight
Not published as a monthly figure; active listings fell 3.2% month over month
Avg Days on Market
40
County-wide average, August data
Inventory Trend
-2.7%
Active listings vs. a year ago; 394 closed sales in August
Placer remains the region's strongest demand story. Roseville homes are going under contract in about three weeks, and well-priced properties in good condition still draw multiple offers. Granite Bay's high end is active, though with wider price ranges depending on the home.
El Dorado County
Median: -10.7% YoYMedian Sale Price
$643,000
Three-month average through June 2026 (Redfin)
Months of Supply
~4.0
El Dorado Hills sub-market (June); no county-wide figure published
Avg Days on Market
35
Up slightly from 33 a year earlier
Active Listings
592
February county count; supply has been building through 2026
The El Dorado Hills sub-market is the county's largest, with roughly 4.0 months of supply in June, about 214 active listings, an average of 43 days on market, and an average sold price near $1.07 million. County-wide, price and pace vary widely by area and price band, so where you buy in this county matters more than almost anywhere else I work.
City-Level Pulse Check
Roseville
~$650K
21-22 days to contract; about 1.5-2 months of supply. Still a seller's market.
Folsom
~$750K
Median sold price; roughly 14 days to contract, one of the fastest paces in the region.
Granite Bay
$1.2M-$1.5M
Median depends on the home and source; the high end is active with a wider price spread.
Lincoln
~$621K
Median (Redfin, last 3 months); about 28 days on market, up 6.5% year over year on average price.
Loomis
~$727K
Median (Redfin, all home types); roughly 34 days on market.
Auburn
~$583K
Median (Redfin city); about 35 days on market, down 7.3% year over year.
Gold River
~$649K
Median sold price (June); about 31 days on market.
City figures are the most recent published medians and paces from Redfin, local MLS summaries, and broker market reports, and can vary by source and timeframe.
Sources: Sacramento Association of REALTORS; Prism Group September 2026 Sacramento County outlook; MetroList; Redfin county and city data; ownplacer.com August 2026 Placer County update; Yoffie Real Estate Group El Dorado Hills report. Figures are the most recent published at the time of writing.
Interest Rate Update
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.95 percent in the week ending September 17, according to Freddie Mac, up from 6.76 percent the prior week and from 6.26 percent a year ago. The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey put the average at 6.97 percent the same week. Rates are running a little hotter than forecasters expected heading into fall.
What the forecasts say: Fannie Mae sees the 30-year averaging around 6.4 percent through the fourth quarter, easing to about 6.3 percent early next year. The Mortgage Bankers Association projects 6.5 percent for both the third and fourth quarters. The consensus across the major forecasters is simple: rates stay in the mid-6 percent range through the rest of 2026 and hold above 6 percent through 2027.
What it means, in plain language
On a $600,000 mortgage, the difference between 6.26 percent and 6.95 percent is about $274 a month. That is real money, and it is why buyers are negotiating harder and sellers are coming to the table on price. But here is what nobody likes to hear: waiting for rates to drop three points did not work in 2022, 2023, or 2024, and it will not work now. A quarter-point move is planning noise, not a destiny. Buy the home you can afford today, and remember you can refinance later if rates ease.
Local Trends & Developments
A few things happening in the region that will touch the market over the next year:
State law is overriding local zoning near transit
SB 79, effective July 1, 2026, requires transit-rich areas near major stations to allow residential buildings of 7 to 9 stories, overruling local zoning in the affected hubs. Sacramento is among the areas it covers. More density near light rail and Amtrak stations means more housing supply options in the years ahead, especially along transit corridors.
Sacramento County is rewriting its zoning rules
The county is overhauling its zoning code to allow duplexes in single-family zones, ease parking requirements, and encourage infill along corridors such as North Watt Avenue. Adoption is expected later in 2026. The City of Sacramento is simultaneously updating its zoning to match the 2040 General Plan, which eliminated caps on units per lot. The result: more gentle-density housing options coming online across the region.
ADU rules keep loosening
New state laws this year remove the owner-occupancy requirement for junior ADUs with full bathrooms, cut penalties tied to ADU size, and move toward allowing two detached ADUs on a single lot. For homeowners in established neighborhoods, an accessory unit remains one of the smarter ways to build equity and income without moving.
Transit investment is expanding the map
The new Dos Rios Light Rail Station opened this month on the Blue Line, connecting the River District and Mirasol Village. SacRT also won $25.8 million in state grants for new light rail vehicles, station upgrades, and 546 affordable homes in Sacramento and West Sacramento. Better transit raises the value of nearby neighborhoods, and we are seeing that play out now.
A housing bond is headed to the ballot
California's 2026 state budget places an $11.25 billion housing bond before voters this fall. If it passes, expect an acceleration of affordable and infill housing funding statewide, with Sacramento a prime beneficiary given its pipeline of transit-adjacent sites.
Neighborhood Spotlight: Roseville
This month's spotlight is Roseville, partly because it is home base for my office and partly because it is the best example in the region of a market that simply will not quit. Roseville remains a seller's market with roughly 1.5 to 2 months of supply, which is about as tight as it gets.
Why it is desirable
- Strong school districts: Roseville City schools through 8th grade, Roseville Joint Union High School District beyond. School boundaries are a major driver of home values here.
- Master-planned communities everywhere you look: Westpark, Fiddyment Farm, Blue Oaks, Morgan Creek, Diamond Creek, and newer projects like Placer One and Winding Creek in West Roseville.
- 70-plus parks, the Maidu Regional Park trail network, and Folsom Lake access from the east side of town.
- The Galleria, large retail and medical complexes, and new neighborhood amenities built into most developments.
Price range and pace
The median sale price sits around $650,000, up about 1.5 percent year over year. Homes go under contract in roughly three weeks, and the best properties in good condition still draw multiple offers, often near or at asking price. New construction in West Roseville starts in the low-to-mid $500,000s and runs from there depending on the community and lot. One thing to know before you buy new: many newer neighborhoods carry Mello-Roos special assessments on top of property taxes, so factor that into your monthly number.
Who it is best for
Growing families who want great schools and a real yard, move-up buyers tired of bidding on fixers, and relocating families from the Bay Area who need a sane commute option: Roseville sits about 20 miles from downtown Sacramento, roughly 20 to 30 minutes off-peak, with I-80 and SR-65 handling the drive.
This Month's Seller Tip: Price From Day One
With roughly 38 percent of listings in the region taking a price reduction, the single most expensive mistake a seller can make right now is starting too high and chasing the market down with cuts. Every reduction costs you showings in those critical first two weeks, and buyers notice the pattern.
The winning play this fall: price against today's closed comps, not your neighbor's sale from 2022. Make the home show beautifully, prepare for a slightly longer timeline than the spring market, and hold your ground on the numbers. Well-priced homes in Placer County's tightest markets, like Roseville, are still selling near asking price, so the discount is happening on the overpriced ones, not the well-priced ones.
Next month's edition will carry the buyer's version, with the specific negotiating moves that are working in this market.
Want the version tailored to you?
A newsletter gives you the region. A thirty-minute conversation gives you the neighborhood, the price band, and the strategy that fits your situation. I have been tracking this market for 37 years, and I will give you the honest read on what these numbers mean for your move. Let's find time this week.
Talk to you soon.