Market Intel
Steve's Takes
Quick reads on what is actually happening in Sacramento real estate. No fluff, no sugarcoating. Just what I see in the market right now, straight from 37 years in the trenches.
Rates Crossed 7.28%. That's the Highest Since 2023. So What?
Freddie Mac's 30-year just averaged 7.28%, up a quarter point in a single week and the highest reading since November 2023. Every buyer who parked on the curb waiting for a rate dip just watched the door price go up again. Here's the part nobody says: a 7.28% rate is a problem for the house you can't afford, not the one you can. Buy the right home at a price you can defend, then refinance when the world settles. Waiting on a number you don't control is the most expensive strategy in real estate.
Sacramento's Condo Market Just Moved. Nobody's Talking About It.
Everyone fixates on single-family homes, but the real story in Sacramento right now is condos. Months of supply just jumped from 3.1 to 6.3, and the condo median is down 18% from a year ago. That's where the actual leverage in this market lives, if you know what you're buying. A condo discount is real money, but it's only a bargain if the HOA, the location, and the building hold up. A cheap condo with a broken HOA is just an expensive problem wearing a smaller price tag.
Sacramento's Median Is Flat. That's Not a Crash, That's a Sorting.
The county median is sitting around $550,000, essentially flat from a year ago, while single-family sales ran 8% below last year and signed contracts ticked up 6%. Fewer sales, more contracts, flat prices: that's not a market collapsing, that's a market sorting itself. The priced-right homes are still moving, and the overstuffed listings are the ones taking the lumps. Read the homes that sell, not the ones that don't.
Rates Crossed 7%. Here's What Didn't Happen.
Freddie Mac's 30-year averaged 7.03% this week, up from 6.95% a week earlier and the fourth straight weekly climb. The market's answer? Placer's median is still up from a year ago, Sacramento's is basically flat, and priced-right homes keep getting offers in days. Higher rates are thinning the crowd at the open house, not ending the game. If you are waiting on a rate dip to fix prices, you may be waiting on the wrong number.
Tell Me Again How Placer Is a Buyer's Market.
Go ahead, read the national headline: inventory is up, so leverage has shifted to buyers. Then look at Placer, where listings were down 11% from a year earlier in the latest county count and closed sales were still running ahead of last year. Roseville is running a two-month supply, and a two-month supply is not leverage, it is a rumor. The discounts out there are real, but they land on the dated and the overpriced, not on the good homes that just collected offers.
El Dorado's Median Is Down 10.7%. The Headline Is a Half-Truth.
County-wide, El Dorado's median sits near $643,000, down more than 10% from a year ago, so the 'county is crashing' headlines write themselves. They skip one detail: that average blends Tahoe-side cabins with foothill commuter towns, and the commuter towns are not crashing. El Dorado Hills is off only about 5.6% and sells in about 19 days; Cameron Park is down roughly 3% and clears in about three weeks. A county median is a good conversation starter and a terrible price sheet, so know which pocket of the county it is describing before you write an offer.
Rates Hit Their 2026 High. Placer Bought Anyway.
The 30-year fixed just averaged 6.95%, per Freddie Mac, the highest reading since January and up from 6.76% a week earlier. Placer County's answer? A $693,000 median sale price, up 2.7% from a year ago, with sellers still collecting 96% of asking. Buyers who sit out waiting for a rate dip are betting their family's timeline on a number nobody controls. This is the market you have. Buy the right house at the right price, then refinance when rates cooperate.
Homes Sell Faster Than a Year Ago. So Much for the Freeze.
Every headline reads 'inventory's up, market's cooling,' so let's check the actual thermostat. Sacramento County's latest count shows about 2.4 months of supply, and homes are selling in about 27 days, down from 35 a year ago. Cooling markets don't move eight days faster. What's really happening is sorting: the priced-right home sells in a weekend, and the overstuffed listing sits until it takes a price cut. Read the market by the homes that sell, not the ones that don't.
Nearly 4 in 10 Listings Took a Price Cut. That's a Message.
Sacramento County's September outlook counted 994 price reductions, a 38% reduction rate, while signed contracts ticked up 6%. Think about that: the market is still moving, it just refuses to pay the wrong number. Sellers, the message is simple. A price cut is a discount you give yourself after weeks of showings and second-guessing. Price it right on day one and you keep the momentum, the offers, and the money.
A Pile of Leftovers Is Not a Market Shift.
You keep hearing 'inventory's up, homes are sitting longer,' so it must finally be a buyer's market. Not really. The great homes are still selling in days, often with multiple offers. What's sitting is the overpriced, the dated, the junkers. A strong home was, is, and will be a seller's game. Don't mistake a pile of leftovers for a market shift.
The Costliest Discount You'll Ever Take.
Popular advice right now: offer under list, negotiate hard, you've got the leverage. Careful. That only works on a home that's actually worth it. I've never once steered a client into a house they didn't love just to win a negotiation. The wrong house at a discount is still the wrong house, and it's the costliest discount you'll ever take.
Rates Climbed to 6.76%. The Waiting Game Just Cost Buyers.
The 30-year fixed pushed to about 6.76% this week, Freddie Mac's highest reading in about a year, up from 6.66% back in late July. Plenty of buyers are parked on the curb waiting for rates to fall, and that wait just got more expensive. You do not time a rate with your family's next chapter. Buy the right house at a price you can defend, then refinance when the world settles down.
El Dorado's Median Is Off. El Dorado Hills Is Not.
County-wide, El Dorado's median home price is running roughly 10% below a year ago, yet El Dorado Hills still trades near a million dollars. Same county, two opposite weather systems. If you are hunting the county line for a deal, know which market you are really standing in before you write an offer.
Rates Pushed Back to 6.66% and Placer Just Kept Buying.
The 30-year fixed crept back to about 6.66% this week, per Freddie Mac, and Placer County did not flinch. Median sale price is still running roughly 2.8% higher than a year ago. When buyers keep closing through a 6.6% rate, that is demand with legs, not a flash in the pan.
El Dorado County Is Not One Market. It's Two.
County-wide, El Dorado County's median sits around $643,000, but El Dorado Hills is a whole other animal at roughly $920,000 with homes going pending in about 26 days. Same county, two completely different games. Know which one you are playing before you set a price or write an offer.
Archive
Older takes, kept for the record. The most recent observations live in the main feed above.
Saw Three Offers on One Listing in Lincoln This Week.
Saw 3 offers on a listing in Lincoln this week. In this market? That is called momentum. Buyers who move fast get the house. Sellers who price right get the deal.
Open Houses Are Packed Again.
Open houses are packed again. Either everyone loves Saturday afternoons or the market just woke up. I am going with both.
Inventory Is Climbing in El Dorado Hills.
Inventory is climbing in El Dorado Hills. Buyers, you finally have options. Sellers, price it right from day one. The days of blind bidding wars are behind us for now.
Median Price Ticked Up in Placer County. That's Stability.
Median price in Placer County ticked up 2% last month. That is not a boom, that is stability. And stability is what wins long-term.
New Construction Everywhere in Roseville. Buyer Beware.
New construction is popping up all over Roseville. That means more supply, but not all builders build the same. Do your homework, or call someone who already did it.
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